TV


Just funny … http://www.megavideo.com/?v=DF4RUZZI

(sorry not embed player works with MegaVideo)

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An interesting piece in Foreign Policy takes some of the best prejudices against Ruper Murdoch and discusses the assumptions.

Think Again: Rupert Murdoch

  • He is the world’ most powerful media mogul : not for long

Setbacks in China, small manoeuvers margins in the Internet (considering market capitalization, NewsCorp is on par with Disney around $89bn but behing Time Warner @81bn, and far far from Google ($150bn)

  • SERVICE WITH A (SELF-MOCKING) SMILE:   “I’m Rupert Murdoch, the billionaire tyrant!&rdquMurdoch puts money ahead of ideology : not really

pro small business, pro average reader, anti-union

  • Murdoch’s web strategy was perfectly timed : as if

too small vs. Internet titans (Skype bought by eBay for $4bn, YouTube for $1.7bn)

  • NewsCorp is a family business : for now

It is becoming likely that Chernin might jump in the CEO seat after Murdoch’s gone.

  • Murdoch has given up on China : no way

Considering his recent setbacks, one might think this, but Star is an pan-Asian success, he is currently redefining his strategy, pushing contents rather than distribution (thanks to also to its online presence).

  • Murdoch hates Europe : only half right

more precisely the European Union as a political organisation with its layers of bureaucrats. Despite all that, Europe is still News Corp.’s second biggest market after the United States, with fiscal 2006 revenues of $7.6 billion (most of it from Britain though). Rebuffed in his attempts to do deals in Germany and France, he has lately been focusing on the faster-growing periphery. In the past two years, he’s acquired interests in TV stations in Poland and Turkey. His biggest bet is an Italian satellite TV network acquired from government-owned Telecom Italia for roughly $1 billion. Last year, Sky Italia picked up more than 400,000 new subscribers and cut its operating losses from $61 million to $13 million.

  • Murdoch is a tyrant : no

An underappreciated sense of humor and a willingness to tolerate and even encourage risk-taking across his vast empire. Those traits however coexist alongside the more conventional image, which is also true, of Rupert the hands-on polemicist and tough-minded executive with a knack for striking hard and tacking fast.My Misadventures with the Titans, Poseurs, and Money Guys Who Mastered and Messed Up Big MediaAdditional readings :

Personally, I first became acquainted to Murdoch in the excellent Autumn of the Moguls: My Misadventures with the Titans, Poseurs, and Money Guys Who Mastered and Messed Up Big Media by Michael Wolff, who is a typical American media columnist, in the way he depicts with talent the media industry and its trends, without forgetting to portray himself in the big picture. Murdoch appears as the ultimate Media Mogul, and displays as well an honest guy with a profound sense of business.

No French version

Crystalballer | 2005.12.08, originally uploaded by Ghostboy.

Let alone New Year’s resolutions (in which, yes, is included for my part : blog more), one of the early year game is the prediction game. So my own unfounded predictions (feelings) for 2007 in the French media lanscape are :

  • Facing higher anti-piracy suit threat, DailyMotion will not be bought by a TV channel (VU : 3.5 M)$
    Update 4/01: TF1 is said to have turned down the 340-M€ offer for DailyMotion (Nouvel Obs)
  • Vpod.tv will change its business model to find more differentiating factors.
  • TF1 will further diversify in the internet / multichannel world (despite contractual engagement in the Canal+ deal) through acquisitions and new launch. (Potential launch of its Satellite free TV bouque).
  • Bouygues will sell its stake in TF1, finding no longer value in traditional media.
  • Another new entrant in the DTT will conclude an alliance with an historical player.
  • PPR will enter the media sphere.
  • Free will conduct a major merger in the telco business (look out for big foreign Telco company).
  • “Asterix 3” after a major promotion on TV shows will hit the 5 m mark in the 3 weeks.
  • Discussions will start among French TV producers to build a video platform in the wake of the US 4 TV networks to fight Youtube, but excluding TV networks.
  • StarAcademy 8 will fade and will be taken to access prime-time.
  • 2007 will be the year for PVR in France : sales pushed by Canal+ and Free HD will reach 3 M units (June 06: 1.5 M)
  • CSA and ARCEP will merge.
  • Following a major buy-out threat, regulators will help the media conglomerate to become bigger by lifting multimedia concentration regulation.
  • Liberation circulation will be boosted from Segolene Royal election;
  • Le Monde will suffer another yearly loss and will facilitate El Pais increase in equity share.
  • Aufeminin.com and rueducommerce.com will rise at the stock exchange (respectively +20% and -55% in 2006). Other websites will want to benefit from this kind of bubble2.0 (even if there isn’t any whatsoever).

What are yours ?
If those predictions do not suit you, you can still participate to the Media Prognostication Contest from USA Today.

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A part poser mes résolutions de la nouvelle année (dans lesquels vous vous doutez bien qu’il y a : écrire plus souvent), un des jeux les plus en vogue en ce début d’année est de faire des prédictions pour 2007. Ainsi je cède avec délices au plaisir de laisser aller mon imagination à partir de faits réels ou imaginaires. Voici mes “prévisions” 2007 dans le domaine des médias :

  • Prenant peur de procès pour piraterie, DailyMotion ne trouvera pas d’acquéreur TV.
    Update 4/01: TF1 a indiqué qu’il avait renoncé à acquérir DailyMotion pour 340 M€ -estimation des banques d’affaires (Nouvel Obs)
  • Vpod.tv modifiera sensiblement son business model afin de se différencier davantage des autres plate-formes de vidéo en ligne.
  • TF1 continuera sa diversification dans l’internet et dans le multichaînes (malgré des engagements contractuels lors du deal avec Canal+) à travers des acquisitions et des lancements. (Lancement potentiel d’un bouquet satellite des chaînes gratuites du groupe, y compris de TF1 Music).
  • Bouygues vendra sa participation dans TF1, ne trouvant plus de croissance dans la TV traditionnelle.
  • Un autre nouvel entrant dans la TNT concluera une alliance avec un acteur historique de la TV.
  • PPR mettra un premier pied dans le secteur des médias.
  • Free participera à une fusion dans le secteur des telcos (avec un gros acteur étranger?).
  • “Asterix 3” après une promo TV d’enfer dépassera les 5 millions après 3 semaines d’exploitation en salle.
  • Des discussions se poursuivront entre les producteurs d’émissions pour construire une plate-forme de VOD à l’instar des 4 TV networks américains qui veulent par ce biais combattre Youtube, mais en France, les chaînes de TV en seront exclues.
  • La StarAcademy 8 connaîtra des audiences en baisse et sera programmé en Access Prime Time.
  • 2007 sera l’année des PVR en France : les ventes poussées par Canal+ et les telcos atteindra 3 millions d’unité (Juin 06: 1.5 M)
  • Le CSA et l’ARCEP vont fusionner.
  • A la suite d’une tentative d’OPA majeure, le législateur aidera les groupes médias à grossir et allégera les régles anti-concentration.
  • Les ventes de Libération vont être propulsées par la victoire de Ségolène Royale à la présidentielle;
  • Le Monde va connaître une nouvelle année de pertes et ouvrira la voie à une montée au capital d’El Pais..
  • Aufeminin.com et rueducommerce.com vont progresser en bourse (respectivement +20% et -55% en 2006). D’autres sites internet voudront également bénéficier de valorisation élevée liée à une potentielle bulle 2.0 (même si elle n’existe pas, peu importe).

Et vous quelles sont vos prédictions pour cette année ?
Si ces prévisions ne vous satisfont pas, vous pouvez toujours participer et donner votre avis à celle d’USA Today : Media Prognostication Contest.