Très bonne conférence de la part des profs de finance de l’ESCP-EAP sur la crise financière, ça date un peu : La crise financière

Une pensée intéressante qu’on peut perdre de vue : “à chaque fois qu’on diversifie son risque, on diminue le contrôle sur le risque…”

Sinon achetez : Air France, Renault, Bongrain, Vranken Pommery.

Ce porte feuille vaut aujourd’hui (9/12/2008)  : 10 + 17,9 + 43 + 20,89 = 91,79

FacebookedOk that’s a lazy pun, but in a great article in Wired (great writing too), we learn that Mark Zuckerberg turned down the Yahoo! offer for $1 bn, and that the company might be valued more than $ 5bn.

Zuckerberg, 23, might became the youngest billionaire in US historyif he would IPO FB.

Some stats : 36 M subs, +1M addition per week, and more notably, a lot of 35+.

Another striking thing is how much you can count on people’s laziness :
So, 3 days after the feature launched, he posted a 485-word open letter to his users, apologizing for the surprise and explaining how they could opt out of News Feed if they wished. The tactic worked; the controversy ended as quickly as it began, with no real impact on user growth.
FB introduced new features that would in the company eyes increase the value of the company and then present the change to its users with an opt-out possibility. They have just done the same with the Google Search indexation  …

 Another interesting point : The site’s nearly 40 million active users generate more than a billion pageviews a day, but ad clickthrough rates are low. An estimated half of its $150 million in revenue comes from an advertising deal with Microsoft.

Very interesting by Bear Stearns, about What Should Yahoo do regarding Social Networks ? (thanks Olivier)

Main points :  

1 – Leisure Social networks (MySpace, FaceBook, …) could progressively take on the usual generalist portals thanks to their open API and incremental add of new applications.
2 – a very strong growth in terms of subscriptions, use and page views (rising prime page CPM level from $4 to $18in 2016 !)
3 – If social networks come from youth, it is no longer exclusive : out of the 70 M of unique visitors on MySpace, 42% have between 35 and 54 years old (34% for FaceBook)
4 – not a US phenomenon : 56 and 63% of FaceBook and MySpace users are located outside the US.
5 – If Yahoo! bought out FaceBook, this could dramatically improve their efforts to targeted marketing thanks to the tons of personnal information everyone share with one another.

Some data :
> June 2007 in the US : 70 M VU for MySpace, 28 M for Facebook (respectively 109 M and 47 M if you take into account the international aspects)
> 51% of the time spent online by 13-24 year old is on user-generated content websites.
> Internet Ad market share made by Social Networks could reach 12% in 2011 (vs. 5% in ’07e)
> Facebook value could reach $bn 4.5-7 based on a EBITDA multiple of 45x.

This slideshow echoes also a note on TechCrunch on the coming opening of the FaceBook infrastructure following the first dent made by people using the FaceBook interface made for the Iphone on Netvibes … (opening as in “not having to log in before using Facebook services”).

Social Networks (aka SN) is fuzzing all around, but for some reasons : the tremendous growth of those social platforms raise questions.

– Is it always all about community ? Can’t some sociologist show that the way that start-ups are built reflect particular aspects of the American Culture and not necessarily how every society is functionning ? therefore doesn’t the US export via another channel its Weltanschauung?

– Everybody is focusing on the growth of those platforms ? where are the analysts of the Web Dumpster (or as TechCrunch calls it, the Terminal) ? not necessarily analysts of the dot failures, but the analysis of the old glories that faded away : old networks, old unescapable websites (you name them). Lessons could be as interesting as successes. (ok Darwinian theory is just fine but don’t we need some refinements here?)

– Don’t people have a work life anymore ? (there would be plenty to say about that last one).

What do you think ?

Via GigaOm (which I am rediscovering) :

Microsoft has $28.2 billion in cash and short-term investments, Google has $11.9 billion, eBay $3.2 billion before its new credit facility, etc.

 For additional information, Yahoo! has $3.2 bn as well.

via Jambaz Blog, ça commence plutôt vers 3’20”…

CanalsatDSL En regardant d’un peu plus près l’acquisition d’Easynet par Sky en 2006, on en vient naturellement à la conclusion que c’est plutôt une bonne idée pour une plate-forme comme Sky qui bénéficie d’une super image, d’une relation directe avec ses abonnés, et qui est passé d’une logique de canal de distribution priviligiée (satellite) à la sécurisation de sa distribution en devenant fournisseur d’accès à Internet.

Si je reprends les mêmes termes de l’équation pour la France, on en vient naturellement à se dire que Canal+ pour maintenir son lien privilégié avec l’abonné (et donc la belle faculté de lui adresse une facture à la fin du mois) n’aura pas d’autre choix que de devenir fournisseur d’accès. Dès lors, pourquoi pas Club-Internet ? Un prix réduit, une image très user-oriented avec la plate-forme Microsoft TV et l’achat de 600 K abonnés haut débit à moindre coût (on parle d’une valorisation à 340 M€, soit moins de 560 € par abonné)…

Bon en contre-partie, Vivendi, actionnaire de référence de CanalFrance, est également actionnaire de Neuf Cegetel via SFR… ça pourrait coincer de ce côté-là ?

Mais finalement un newsflow positif : SFR se lance dans l’ADSL, Vivendi veut racheter sa part à Vodafone dans SFR (rien de nouveau sous le soleil, sauf un petit rappel opportun au moment où Vodafone redéploit ses investissements), et aussi Vivendi qui doit toujours prouver aux méchants fonds d’investissements qu’il existe une logique d’intégration entre ses différents métiers… it seems to be the right time for VIVANAL+NEUFR




In a nutshell : Easynet was bought by Sky in 2006, I think it’s a great way when you have a great brand, a unique way to deal with your viewers (by billing them!), and when you have to forgo focusing on a single distribution mean, to go into broadband internet access.If we take the same stance in France, it would make sense for Canal+ to go broadband on its own, not being part of a X-Play, to keep its brand uniqueness.

Since then, why not buy Club-Internet ? buy something small (and please cheap) to make it big, which has already a very user-oriented platforme (Microsoft TV) and additionnaly 600 K broadband subs at a reasonable price (conventional wisdom speaks about €340M, ie less than 560 € pro sub).

On the other hand, Vivendi, main shareholder of Canal+ France, has also a stake in Neuf Cegetel via SFR… could this amper the deal ?

To conclude, the newsflow is rather positive : SFR is about to launch a DSL offer, Vivendi says it wants to buy Vodafone’s stake in SFR (nothing new), and Vivendi has still to make a point agains the evil private equity guys, concerning the convergence underway between its different businesses : it seems to be the right time for VIVANAL+NEUFR…

Voici un discours presque ambitieux pour un acteur de la TV 1.0… que pourrait s’approprier bien des patrons du PAD…

Qui a dit lors de la présentation de ses résultats annuels :

M&A ?
“We have also set up an investment fund and are investing in a variety of companies that will lead us into this space as well. There has been so much activity on the Internet front already it’s hard to believe that this is just the beginning.” In response to a query about investment and acquisition plans, he added: “Obviously we are investing in a rather small way in a variety of new media assets. We do believe in their long-term growth and that that’s where a lot of our revenue is going to come from in the future. It’s really hard to assess where that is. … As it stands now we still believe in the blocking and tackling of our basic assets which are television, radio and outdoor and they’re still great businesses.
There will be obviously revenue and profit migrating into new media assets and we intend to be there in quite a large way.”

YouTube ?
“It’s hard to do an absolute cause and effect, but we know it absolutely is helping. We are looking at every single outlet there is for our content.”

Without directly answering a question about the Google deal falling through, the CEO said: “Our TV library is unbelievably valuable and it is relatively undermined. We have not put a lot of properties out there. The main reason—this sort of ties into your second question—is we want to get paid appropriately for it. We will eventually have our library out there, it will be on demand either through advertising, subscription or pay per view, some way shape or form, we just value it very highly and very dearly.”

Answer : Leslie Moonves from CBS

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