Very interesting by Bear Stearns, about What Should Yahoo do regarding Social Networks ? (thanks Olivier)
Main points :
1 – Leisure Social networks (MySpace, FaceBook, …) could progressively take on the usual generalist portals thanks to their open API and incremental add of new applications.
2 – a very strong growth in terms of subscriptions, use and page views (rising prime page CPM level from $4 to $18in 2016 !)
3 – If social networks come from youth, it is no longer exclusive : out of the 70 M of unique visitors on MySpace, 42% have between 35 and 54 years old (34% for FaceBook)
4 – not a US phenomenon : 56 and 63% of FaceBook and MySpace users are located outside the US.
5 – If Yahoo! bought out FaceBook, this could dramatically improve their efforts to targeted marketing thanks to the tons of personnal information everyone share with one another.
Some data :
> June 2007 in the US : 70 M VU for MySpace, 28 M for Facebook (respectively 109 M and 47 M if you take into account the international aspects)
> 51% of the time spent online by 13-24 year old is on user-generated content websites.
> Internet Ad market share made by Social Networks could reach 12% in 2011 (vs. 5% in ‘07e)
> Facebook value could reach $bn 4.5-7 based on a EBITDA multiple of 45x.
This slideshow echoes also a note on TechCrunch on the coming opening of the FaceBook infrastructure following the first dent made by people using the FaceBook interface made for the Iphone on Netvibes … (opening as in ”not having to log in before using Facebook services”).
Social Networks (aka SN) is fuzzing all around, but for some reasons : the tremendous growth of those social platforms raise questions.
- Is it always all about community ? Can’t some sociologist show that the way that start-ups are built reflect particular aspects of the American Culture and not necessarily how every society is functionning ? therefore doesn’t the US export via another channel its Weltanschauung?
- Everybody is focusing on the growth of those platforms ? where are the analysts of the Web Dumpster (or as TechCrunch calls it, the Terminal) ? not necessarily analysts of the dot failures, but the analysis of the old glories that faded away : old networks, old unescapable websites (you name them). Lessons could be as interesting as successes. (ok Darwinian theory is just fine but don’t we need some refinements here?)
- Don’t people have a work life anymore ? (there would be plenty to say about that last one).
What do you think ?
22 August, 2007 at 10:58
1) i like the Robert Axelrod’s book “The evolution of Cooperation”. Even if it’s based on past observation, it’s interesting to applicate his analysis on the social web… how you “have to” belong to a community to survive. Standing alone is just the way to reduce your virtual identity.
2) cash is king (not really… but as an investor, yes)
3) who are you Netcircus ?!
23 August, 2007 at 7:14
1) I disagree but I have not read the book, I will maybe.
Networks help, your family support helps, but I feel community is not your identity per se.
2) content is king, isn’t ? (media and human)
3) I am a young Chinese entrepreneuse in Indonesia, but I happen to be also a 50 years old civil servant in India, and a mid-aged trader on the NY Stock Exchange.
I am not hiding behind this avatar to utter biased and unfounded talks, but I am not sure I would be comfortable using my real ID.